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Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information

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  • Auffhammer, Maximilian
  • Carson, Richard T.

Abstract

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series with number qt6d28j8rg.

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Date of creation: 07 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt6d28j8rg

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Keywords: Forecasting; Climate Change; China; Model Selection;

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References

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  1. Richard F. Garbaccio & Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1999. "Why Has the Energy-Output Ratio Fallen in China?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-91.
  2. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Steinhauser, Ralf, 2006. "The Future Trajectory of US CO2 Emissions: The Role of State vs. Aggregate Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt4878j5w0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  3. Panayotou, Theodore & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Zwane, Alix Peterson, 2002. "Compensation for "Meaningful Participation" in Climate Change Control: A Modest Proposal and Empirical Analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 437-454, May.
  4. Zhang, Chi & May, Michael M. & Heller, Thomas C., 2001. "Impact on global warming of development and structural changes in the electricity sector of Guangdong Province, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 179-203, February.
  5. George Judge & Laura Schechter, 2009. "Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
  6. Christoph Lieb, 2004. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Flow versus Stock Pollution: The Neglect of Future Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(4), pages 483-506, December.
  7. Agras, Jean & Chapman, Duane, 1999. "A dynamic approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 267-277, February.
  8. Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
  9. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Maddison, David, 2006. "Environmental Kuznets curves: A spatial econometric approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 218-230, March.
  12. Zhang, Zhongxiang, 2000. "Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 739-752, April.
  13. Calmfors, Lars & Forslund, Anders, 1991. "Real-Wage Determination and Labour Market Policies: The Swedish Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1130-48, September.
  14. Christoph Böhringer & Klaus Conrad & Andreas Löschel, 2003. "Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(1), pages 49-76, January.
  15. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
  16. Garbaccio, Richard F. & Ho, Mun S. & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1999. "Controlling carbon emissions in China," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(04), pages 493-518, October.
  17. CARSON, RICHARd T. & JEON, YONGIL & McCUBBIN, DONALD R., 1997. "The relationship between air pollution emissions and income: US Data," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 433-450, November.
  18. Christopher Yang & Stephen Schneider, 1998. "Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 373-404, December.
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  1. Why Climate Scientists Have Consistently UNDERestimated Key Global Warming Impacts
    by Joe Romm in Think Progress on 2013-01-31 23:12:08
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