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The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve

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Author Info
Clive G. Bowsher () (Nuffield College, Oxford University)
Roland Meeks () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

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Abstract

The class of Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN) models is introduced that provides a new, general method for modelling and forecasting time series of economic functions. The underlying, continuous economic function (or `signal') is a natural cubic spline whose dynamic evolution is driven by a cointegrated vector autoregression for the ordinates (or 'y-values') at the knots of the spline. The natural cubic spline provides flexible cross-sectional fit and results in a linear, state space model. This FSN model achieves dimension reduction, provides a coherent description of the observed yield curve and its dynamics as the cross-sectional dimension N becomes large, and can feasibly be estimated and used for forecasting when N is large. The integration and cointegration properties of the model are derived. The FSN models are then applied to forecasting 36-dimensional yield curves for US Treasury bonds at the one month ahead horizon. The method consistently outperforms the Diebold and Li (2006) and random walk forecasts on the basis of both mean square forecast error criteria and economically relevant loss functions derived from the realised profits of pairs trading algorithms. The analysis also highlights in a concrete setting the dangers of attempts to infer the relative economic value of model forecasts on the basis of their associated mean square forecast errors.

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File URL: http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2008/w5/FSN.ECM_YCurve_Bowsher.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2008-W05.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 04 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0805

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Related research
Keywords: FSN-ECM models; functional time series; term structure; forecasting interest rates; natural cubic spline; state space form.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  6. Andrew Jeffrey & Oliver Linton & Thong Nguyen, 2006. "Flexible Term Structure Estimation: Which Method is Preferred?," Metrika, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 99-122, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Clive G. Bowsher, 2004. "Modelling the Dynamics of Cross-Sectional Price Functions: an Econometric Analysis of the Bid and Ask Curves of an Automated Exchange," Economics Papers 2004-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," NBER Working Papers 14463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 2009. "Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CREATES Research Papers 2009-39, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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