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Testing for Asymmetry in the Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: Some Evidence for the USA

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Author Info
Miguel St. Aubyn

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Abstract

Two sources of asymmetry in the Phillips curve are considered: the "capacity constraint hypothesis" and downward rigidity on wages and/or prices. The short run trade-off between inflation changes and the unemployment gap is modeled in a state-space framework that allows for time variation in both the NAIRU and the trade-off parameter. Empirical evidence for the US using the Kalman filter favors convexity of the Phillips curve, the trade-off depending positively on the unemployment gap and on inflation changes. The two sources of asymmetry produce almost equivalent observational models, so it is not possible to distinguish one from the other.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon. in its series Working Papers with number 2000/05.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp52000

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/departamentos/economia/

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Related research
Keywords: Phillips curve; Kalman filter; state-space models; NAMU;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1994. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation - Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 94/139, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Dupasquier, Chantal & Ricketts, Nicholas, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Breusch, Trevor S & Wickens, Michael R, 1987. "Dynamic Specification, the Long Run and the Estimation of Transformed Regression Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis Fernando melo V. & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a traves de Minimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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