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Oil Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy

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  • Montoro Carlos

    ()
    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú and LSE)

Abstract

This paper investigates how monetary policy should react to oil shocks in a microfounded model with staggered price-setting and oil as a non-produced input in the production function. We extend Benigno and Woodford (2005) to obtain a second order approximation to the expected utility of the representative household when the steady state is distorted and the economy is hit by oil price shocks. The main result is that oil price shocks generate a trade-off between inflation and output stabilisation when oil has low substitutability in production. Therefore, it becomes optimal to the monetary authority to stabilise partially the effects of oil shocks on inflation and some inflation is desirable. We also find, in contrast to Benigno and Woodford (2005), that this trade-off remains even when we eliminate the effects of monopolistic distortions from the steady state. Our results also shed light on how technological improvements which reduces the dependence on oil, also reduce the impact of oil shocks on the economy. This can explain why oil shocks have lower impact on inflation in the 2000s in contrast to the 1970s. Since oil has become easier to substitute with other renewable resources, the impact of oil shocks has been dampened.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2007-010.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-010

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Keywords: Optimal Monetary Policy; Welfare; Second Order Solution; Oil Price Shocks; Endogenous Trade-off.;

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References

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  1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation stabilization and welfare: The case of a distorted steady state," Discussion Papers 0405-04, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
  3. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Optimal Stabilization Policy When Wages and Prices are Sticky: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," CEPR Discussion Papers 4740, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0782, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, 02.
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  13. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, 02.
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  19. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  24. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2012. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 2012-33, CEPII research center.
  2. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
  3. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, 02.
  4. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Macroeconomics 0512004, EconWPA, revised 31 Dec 2005.
  5. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente., 2010. "Inflation, Oil Price Volatility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2010-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  6. T.V.S.Ramamohan Rao, 2011. "Contemporary Relevance and Ongoing Controversies Related to the CES Production Function," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 36-57, July.
  7. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 49007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  9. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?," IMF Working Papers 09/101, International Monetary Fund.

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