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Oil Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Montoro Carlos () (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú and LSE)

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Abstract

This paper investigates how monetary policy should react to oil shocks in a microfounded model with staggered price-setting and oil as a non-produced input in the production function. We extend Benigno and Woodford (2005) to obtain a second order approximation to the expected utility of the representative household when the steady state is distorted and the economy is hit by oil price shocks. The main result is that oil price shocks generate a trade-off between inflation and output stabilisation when oil has low substitutability in production. Therefore, it becomes optimal to the monetary authority to stabilise partially the effects of oil shocks on inflation and some inflation is desirable. We also find, in contrast to Benigno and Woodford (2005), that this trade-off remains even when we eliminate the effects of monopolistic distortions from the steady state. Our results also shed light on how technological improvements which reduces the dependence on oil, also reduce the impact of oil shocks on the economy. This can explain why oil shocks have lower impact on inflation in the 2000s in contrast to the 1970s. Since oil has become easier to substitute with other renewable resources, the impact of oil shocks has been dampened.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2007-010.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-010

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Postal: Jr. Miro Quesada 441, Lima
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Web page: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe
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Related research
Keywords: Optimal Monetary Policy Welfare Second Order Solution Oil Price Shocks Endogenous Trade-off.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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  1. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
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  2. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Drora Karotkin, 1996. "Justification of the simple majority and chairman rules," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 479-486.
  6. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal stabilization policy when wages and prices are sticky: The case of a distorted steady state," Discussion Papers 0405-03, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Tack Yun, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Relative Price Distortions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 89-109, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  9. James D. Hamilton & Ana Maria Herrera, 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-10, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 11806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0782, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  17. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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