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The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?

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  • Gunasinghe, Chandika
  • Selvanathan, E.A.
  • Naranpanawa, Athula
  • Forster, John

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of three fiscal policy shocks on per capita real GDP and income inequality in Australia during the period 1965–2014. A small structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is constructed for an open economy for contemporaneous identification and estimation purposes. Based on the evidence of one cointegrating vector among the variables, a structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is specified for the long run. Direct taxation, indirect taxation receipts and government spending are identified as permanent fiscal policy shocks. The convergent use of two different models (SVAR & SVEC) strengthens the credibility of the results. The results have three key policy implications. First, a reduction in direct taxation receipts increases per capita real GDP without increasing income inequality. Second, a reduction in government expenditure significantly increases income inequality. Third, the adverse effect of indirect taxation receipts on income inequality is greater than the redistributive effect of government expenditure, which questions the widely held fiscal policy strategy of using indirect taxation to finance redistributive expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunasinghe, Chandika & Selvanathan, E.A. & Naranpanawa, Athula & Forster, John, 2020. "The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 250-270.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:42:y:2020:i:2:p:250-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.06.007
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    2. Jeanne Terblanche & Dawie van Lill & Hylton Hollander, 2023. "Fiscal policy and dimensions of inequality in South Africa: A time-varying coefficient approach," Working Papers 05/2023, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    3. Pravakar Sahoo & Ashwani Bishnoi, 2021. "IMPACT OF OUTWARD FDI: Evidence from Emerging Economies for Policy," IEG Working Papers 433, Institute of Economic Growth.
    4. Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau & Abdulrasheed Zakari & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2024. "Exploring the Fiscal policy—income inequality relationship with Bayesian model averaging analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Sahoo, Pravakar & Bishnoi, Ashwani, 2021. "Impact of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1131-1148.
    6. Chandika Gunasinghe & E. A. Selvanathan & Athula Naranpanawa & John Forster, 2021. "Rising Income Inequality in OECD Countries: Does Fiscal Policy Sacrifice Economic Growth in Achieving Equity?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(6), pages 1840-1876, December.
    7. Riddhima Sobti, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks: What do the Indian Data Say?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 7-27, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income inequality; Output; Fiscal policy; Open economy; SVAR and SVEC; Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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