IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2016i4p5-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget

Author

Listed:
  • Emilian DOBRESCU

    (Centre for Macroeconomic Modeling, NIER, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

This paper examines two potential positions in the debate over the public budget size. Notably, the indicator used is inherently unstable, and shifting opinions regarding the public budget’s size might be a psychosocial mirror of the real-world volatility itself. However, this indicator may be dominated by a hidden variable in given historical frameworks, and the ensuing debates under this hypothesis might reflect the effective public budget’s deviations from the applicable contextual attractor. Testing the temporal features of a large database, the paper supports the second assumption. The possible attractors are approximated using the VAR algorithm and the BARS Curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilian DOBRESCU, 2016. "Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-34, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:5-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_16/rjef4_2016p5-34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2005. "The BDS Test as a Test for the Adequacy of a GARCH(1,1) Specification: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 282-309.
    3. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    4. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1997. "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth at the State and Local Level," Public Finance Review, , vol. 25(2), pages 213-237, March.
    5. Cosimo Magazzino, 2014. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Italy: An Empirical Analyses Based On New Data (1861-2008)," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 38-54.
    6. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    7. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    8. Marc Tomljanovich, 2004. "The Role of State Fiscal Policy in State Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 318-330, July.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2001. "Testing for the Presence of a Random Walk in Series with Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 127-150, March.
    11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    12. Mynhardt, H. R. & Plastun, Alex & Makarenko, Inna, 2014. "Behavior of Financial Markets Efficiency During the Financial Market Crisis: 2007-2009," MPRA Paper 58942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    14. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    15. Jing Xing, 2011. "Does tax structure affect economic growth? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Working Papers 1120, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    16. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2011. "The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 33-58, February.
    17. Helms, L Jay, 1985. "The Effect of State and Local Taxes on Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 574-582, November.
    18. Johannesen, Niels, 2014. "Tax evasion and Swiss bank deposits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 46-62.
    19. Barunik, Jozef & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2010. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3844-3855.
    20. Reed, W. Robert, 2008. "The Robust Relationship Between Taxes and U.S. State Income Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80, March.
    21. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    22. Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2003. "Testing for unit roots with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 75-89, July.
    23. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    24. Oktay Tas & Salim Dursunoglu, 2005. "Testing Random Walk Hypothesis For Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1035, International Trade and Finance Association.
    25. Gareth D. Myles, 2009. "Economic Growth and the Role of Taxation - Disaggregate Data," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 715, OECD Publishing.
    26. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    27. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    28. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    29. Scully, Gerald W, 1995. "The "Growth Tax" in the United States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 71-80, October.
    30. Mr. Michael Keen, 2012. "Taxation and Development: Again," IMF Working Papers 2012/220, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Miller, Stephen M & Russek, Frank S, 1997. "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 603-613, July.
    32. Nunzio Cappuccio & Diego Lubian, 2010. "The fragility of the KPSS stationarity test," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(2), pages 237-253, June.
    33. John W. Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2001. "Autoregression-Based Estimators for ARFIMA Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-11, CIRANO.
    34. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    35. Padovano, Fabio & Galli, Emma, 2001. "Tax Rates and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries (1950-1990)," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 44-57, January.
    36. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2014. "The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 311-336, April.
    37. Epaminondas Panas, 2001. "Estimating fractal dimension using stable distributions and exploring long memory through ARFIMA models in Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 395-402.
    38. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    40. Darren Grant, 2014. "What Makes A Good Economy? Evidence From Public Opinion Surveys," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 1120-1136, July.
    41. Saunders, Peter, 1985. "Public Expenditure and Economic Performance in OECD Countries," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, February.
    42. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 5-33, November.
    43. Engen, Eric M. & Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 617-642, December.
    44. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    45. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    46. Guiseppe Moscarini & Francesco Squintani, 2004. "Competitive Experimentation with Private Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1489, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    47. Paul Cashin, 1995. "Government Spending, Taxes, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 237-269, June.
    48. Koester, Reinhard B & Kormendi, Roger C, 1989. "Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Some Supply-Side Hypotheses," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 367-386, July.
    49. Bania, Neil & Gray, Jo Anna & Stone, Joe A., 2007. "Growth, Taxes, and Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 193-204, June.
    50. Jens Matthias Arnold, 2008. "Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 643, OECD Publishing.
    51. Gareth D. Myles, 2009. "Economic Growth and the Role of Taxation-Theory," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 713, OECD Publishing.
    52. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
    53. Mullen, John K. & Williams, Martin, 1994. "Marginal tax rates and state economic growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 687-705, December.
    54. Michael Wasylenko, 1997. "Taxation and economic development: the state of the economic literature," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 37-52.
    55. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Asea, Patrick, 1997. "On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 99-126, October.
    56. Ferede, Ergete & Dahlby, Bev, 2012. "The Impact of Tax Cuts on Economic Growth: Evidence From the Canadian Provinces," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 65(3), pages 563-594, September.
    57. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
    58. Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), 2006. "Spatial Dynamics, Networks and Modelling," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3887.
    59. Jens Matthias Arnold & Bert Brys & Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Cyrille Schwellnus & Laura Vartia, 2011. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 59-80, February.
    60. Lemieux, Thomas & Fortin, Bernard & Frechette, Pierre, 1994. "The Effect of Taxes on Labor Supply in the Underground Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 231-254, March.
    61. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    62. Perron,P., 1988. "Testing For A Random Walk: A Simulation Experiment Of Power When The Simpling Interval Is Varied," Papers 336, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    63. Barry W. Poulson & Jules Gordon Kaplan, 2008. "State Income Taxes and Economic Growth," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 28(1), pages 53-71, Winter.
    64. Lee, Young & Gordon, Roger H., 2005. "Tax structure and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1027-1043, June.
    65. Arnold Harberger, 1964. "Taxation, Resource Allocation, and Welfare," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Direct and Indirect Taxes in the Federal Reserve System, pages 25-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Dulce Contreras, 2002. "How to compute the BDS test: a software comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 691-699.
    67. Howard Chernick, 1997. "Tax Progressivity and State Economic Performance," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 11(3), pages 249-267, August.
    68. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    69. Gerald Scully, 1989. "The size of the state, economic growth and the efficient utilization of national resources," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 149-164, November.
    70. Gareth D. Myles, 2009. "Economic Growth and the Role of Taxation - Aggregate Data," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 714, OECD Publishing.
    71. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alban Elshani & Leke Pula, 2023. "Impact of Taxes on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study in the Eurozone," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 24-41.
    2. Lucas Menescal & José Alves, 2022. "Optimal Threshold Taxation: An Empirical Investigation for Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 9782, CESifo.
    3. Emilian Dobrescu, 2018. "Functional trinity of public finance in an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2021. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 3-40, January.
    5. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Dackehag, Margareta & Hansson, Åsa, 2015. "Taxation of Dividend Income and Economic Growth: The Case of Europe," Working Paper Series 1081, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Marco Alfò & Lorenzo Carbonari & Giovanni Trovato, 2020. "On the Effects of Taxation on Growth: an Empirical Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 480, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 May 2020.
    8. Sami Saafi & Meriem Bel Haj Mohamed & Abdeljelil Farhat, 2017. "Untangling the causal relationship between tax burden distribution and economic growth in 23 OECD countries: Fresh evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 265-301, December.
    9. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, Victoria, 2002. "Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Apr 2003.
    10. Richard Kneller & Florian Misch, 2017. "A Survey On The Output Effects Of Tax Reforms From A Policy Perspective," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 165-192, January.
    11. Sarah Nizamani, 2020. "Higher Taxes Reduce Economic Growth: Overwhelming International Evidence," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:14, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    12. Kalaš Branimir & Mirović Vera & Andrašić Jelena, 2017. "Estimating the Impact of Taxes on the Economic Growth in the United States," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 55(4), pages 481-499, December.
    13. Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 2004. "Meta-analysis of the effect of fiscal policies on long-run growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-124, March.
    14. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    15. Norman Gemmell & Joey Au, 2013. "Government size, fiscal policy and the level and growth of output: a review of recent evidence," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 203-229.
    16. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    17. Agata Drobiszová & Zuzana Machová, 2015. "Vliv fiskální politiky na ekonomický růst v zemích OECD [The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in the OECD Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 300-316.
    18. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    19. Andrew Ojede & Bebonchu Atems & Steven Yamarik, 2018. "The Direct and Indirect (Spillover) Effects of Productive Government Spending on State Economic Growth," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 122-141, March.
    20. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer-Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public budget size; attractor; VAR; BARS curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:5-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.