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Local power of likelihood ratio tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process

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  • Saikkonen, Pentti
  • Lütkepohl, Helmut

Abstract

Likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process have been developed under different assumptions regarding deterministic terms. For instance, nonzero mean terms and linear trends have been accounted for in some of the tests. In this paper we provide a general framework for deriving the local power properties of these tests. Thereby it is possible to assess the virtue of utilizing varying amounts of prior information by making assumptions regarding the deterministic terms. One interesting result from this analysis is that if no assumptions regarding the specic form of the mean term are made while a linear trend is excluded then a test is available which has the same local power as an LR test derived under a zero mean assumption. --

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Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 1997,58.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199758

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  1. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  4. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
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