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Cyclical Processes in the Polish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Skrzypczyńska

    (Szkoła Główna Handlowa)

Abstract

The economic activity indicators in Poland during the years 1995-2011 exhibit various cyclical patterns. Employing the Christiano – Fitzgerald band-pass filter and unobserved components model it is shown that the cyclical processes of Polish economic activity are driven by overlapping higher frequency fluctuations (3-4 years) and longer cycles of 8.5 years. The cyclical fluctuations of construction, transportation and trade are dissimilar to gross value added. Economic activity in transportation leads and in construction lags the fluctuations of gross value added. Cyclical fluctuations of gross value added seem to be determined by industry and construction. Manufacturing, especially capital and intermediate goods fluctuations are responsible for the variation of industry. The production of non-durable consumer goods, energy and production of electric power are relatively the most desynchronized compared to industry. Production of electric power leads industrial production. Capital goods, intermediate goods and energy cycle phases are asymmetric – the slowdown lasts shorter and has higher amplitude compared to expansion. During the last crisis occurred the intensified variation of economic activity in Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Skrzypczyńska, 2014. "Cyclical Processes in the Polish Economy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(3), pages 153-192, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:153-192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; turning points; sectoral analysis; Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter; unobserved components model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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