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The Decline In The Volatility Of The Business Cycles In The Uk

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  • CHRISTINA V. ATANASOVA
  • JIANHUA GANG

Abstract

We analyse the sources of the decline of business cycle volatility in the UK using a dynamic factor model that allows for the presence of a structural break in the conditional mean and variance of output, sales, income and unemployment. We augment the factor model with an economic component to investigate the role of structural changes and improved monetary policy in the volatility decline of the series. Our results suggest that the dominant cause for the observed volatility decline is the reduced variability of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina V. Atanasova & Jianhua Gang, 2008. "The Decline In The Volatility Of The Business Cycles In The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 14-36, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:76:y:2008:i:s1:p:14-36
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.01079.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1154283-115, December.

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