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The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models

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  • Thomas A. Lubik
  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that movements in international relative prices (such as the real exchange rate) are large and persistent. Nontraded goods, both in the form of final consumption goods and as an input into the production of final tradable goods, are an important aspect behind international relative price movements. In this paper we show that nontraded goods have important implications for exchange rate behavior, even though fluctuations in the relative price of nontraded goods account for a relatively small fraction of real exchange rate movements. In our quantitative study nontraded goods magnify the volatility of exchange rates when compared to the model without nontraded goods. Cross-country correlations and the correlation of exchange rates with other macro variables are closer in line with the data. In addition, contrary to a large literature,standard alternative assumptions about the currency in which firms price their goods are virtually inconsequential for the properties of aggregate variables in our model, other than the terms of trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 06-05.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:06-05

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Econometric models;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  2. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0718, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Asset market participation, monetary policy rules and the great inflation," Working Paper Series 1438, European Central Bank.
  4. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
  5. Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 289-313.
  6. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(23), pages 1-11.
  9. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation," Working Paper 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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