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Structural Inference and the Lucas Critique

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  • Collard, Fabrice
  • Fève, Patrick
  • Langot, François

Abstract

We develop a structural model that aims at characterizing a set of restrictions allowing for a statistical evaluation of the effect of changes in monetary policy rules on aggregate dynamics at business cycle frequency. Standard econometric tools are first used to reveal and estimate changes in monetary policy rules over two sub-samples. We then test the ability of our model to match a set of moments summarizing the distribution of the data over the two sub-samples. We find that --holding the deep parameters of the model (preferences and technology) constant-- monetary policy parameters adjust to match the data, therefore illustrating the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse in its series IDEI Working Papers with number 111.

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Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision: 2001
Publication status: Published in European Economic Review, vol.�47, n°3, Elsevier, juin 2003, p.�521-552.
Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:667

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Cited by:
  1. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  2. Beatriz de-Blas-Pérez, 2004. "Can Financial Frictions Help Explain The Performance Of The Us Fed?," Economics Working Papers we044517, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  3. Pierre-Yves HENIN & Marie PODEVIN, 2002. "Assessing the Effects of Policy Changes: Lesson from the European 1992 Experience," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 67-68, pages 435-461.
  4. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  6. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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