The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A MRS-IV Approach
AbstractIn this paper, we propose an analytical framework to explore the level and volatility effects of inflation on the output gap. Using quarterly US data over 1977:q2-2009:q4, we then examine the empirical implications of the model by implementing an instrumental variables Markov regime switching approach. We show that inflation uncertainty has a negative and regime dependent impact on the output gap but the level of inflation does not have any such e ect. Our empirical investigation also provides evidence that the US economy is moving towards a period of turmoil before the recent financial crisis was imminent. The results are robust to the use of alternative measures of inflation uncertainty.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2012025.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
output gap; inflation uncertainty; Markov-switching modeling; instrumental variables; endogeneity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2012-11-03 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2012-11-03 (Macroeconomics)
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