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Post-'87 Crash Fears in S&P 500 Futures Options

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Author Info
David S. Bates
Abstract

This paper shows that post-crash implicit distributions have been strongly negatively skewed, and examines two competing explanations: stochastic volatility models with negative correlations between market levels and volatilities, and negative-mean jump models with time-varying jump frequencies. The two models are nested using a Fourier inversion European option pricing methodology, and fitted to S&P 500 futures options data over 1988-1993 using a nonlinear generalized least squares/Kalman filtration methodology. While volatility and level shocks are substantially negatively correlated, the stochastic volatility model can explain the implicit negative skewness only under extreme parameters (e.g., high volatility of volatility) that are implausible given the time series properties of option prices. By contrast, the stochastic volatility/jump-diffusion model generates substantially more plausible parameter" estimates. Evidence is also presented against the hypothesis that volatility follows a diffusion.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5894.

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Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5894

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stein, Jeremy, 1989. " Overreactions in the Options Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1011-23, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bates, David S, 1991. " The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-44, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dumas, Bernard J & Fleming, Jeff & Whaley, Robert E, 1996. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," CEPR Discussion Papers 1369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. " Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Schmalensee, Richard & Trippi, Robert R, 1978. "Common Stock Volatility Expectations Implied by Option Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 129-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. George, Thomas J. & Longstaff, Francis A., 1993. "Bid-Ask Spreads and Trading Activity in the S&P 100 Index Options Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(03), pages 381-397, September. [Downloadable!]
  8. Xu, Xinzhong & Taylor, Stephen J., 1994. "The Term Structure of Volatility Implied by Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(01), pages 57-74, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 5500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Franks, Julian R & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1991. "The Stochastic Behaviour of Market Variance Implied in the Prices of Index Options," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1460-75, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Grossman, Sanford J & Zhou, Zhongquan, 1996. " Equilibrium Analysis of Portfolio Insurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1379-1403, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Ruud, Paul A., 1991. "Extensions of estimation methods using the EM algorithm," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 305-341, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 7687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. David Bates & Roger Craine, 1998. "Valuing the Futures Market Clearinghouse's Default Exposure During the 1987 Crash," NBER Working Papers 6505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Differences of Opinion, Rational Arbitrage and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 7376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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