A Century of Inflation Forecasts
AbstractWe investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the XXth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation of the Bretton Woods Agreements in 1951, and from Nixon's closure of the gold window in 1971 to the end of Volcker’s disinflation in 1983.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8292.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Other versions of this item:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-04-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-HIS-2011-04-02 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-HPE-2011-04-02 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-04-02 (Monetary Economics)
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