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Testing for Constant Hedge Ratios in Commodity Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach

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Author Info
Moschini, GianCarlo
Myers, Robert J.

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Abstract

The authors develop a new multivariate GARCH parameterization that is suitable for testing the hypothesis that the optimal futures hedge ratio is constant over time, given that the joint distribution of cash and futures prices is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. The advantage of the new parameterization is that it allows for a flexible form of time-varying volatility, even under the null of a constant hedge ratio. The model is estimated using weekly corn prices. Statistical tests reject the null hypothesis of a constant hedge ratio and also reject the null that time variation in optimal hedge ratios can be explained solely by deterministic seasonality and time-to-maturity effects.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 1945.

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Date of creation: 21 Mar 2001
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Empirical Finance, December 2002, Vol. 9, No. 5, pp. 589-603.
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1945

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P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Moschini, GianCarlo & Lapan, Harvey, 2002. "Hedging Role of Options and Futures under Joint Price, Basis and Production Risk, The," Staff General Research Papers 5137, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Karp, Larry S, 1988. "Dynamic Hedging with Uncertain Production," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(4), pages 621-37, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lence, Sergio H., 1995. "On the optimal hedge under unbiased futures prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 385-388, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Moschini, Giancarlo & Lapan, Harvey, 1995. "The Hedging Role of Options and Futures under Joint Price, Basis, and Production Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1025-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2), pages 249-66, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Moschini, GianCarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2002. "Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and Risk Management for Agricultural Producers," Staff General Research Papers 5323, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  9. repec:isu:genres:1737 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, Giancarlo & Hanson, Steve, 2003. "Production Hedging and Speculative Decisions with Options and Future Markets," Staff General Research Papers 10810, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  14. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-30, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Benninga, Simon & Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1983. "Optimal hedging in the futures market under price uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 141-145. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gregory Koutmos & Andreas Pericli & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2006. "Short-term Dynamics in the Cyprus Stock Exchange," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 205-216, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christos Floros & Dimitrios V. Vougas, 2004. "Hedge ratios in Greek stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1125-1136, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Matteo Manera & Elisa Scarpa, 2006. "Pricing and Hedging Illiquid Energy Derivatives:an Application to the JCC Index," Working Papers 2006.130, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
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