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Combining time-varying and dynamic multi-period optimal hedging models

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  • Michael S. Haigh
  • Matthew T. Holt

Abstract

This paper presents an effective way of combining two distinct approaches used in the hedging literature--dynamic programming (DP) and time-series (GARCH) econometrics. Theoretically consistent yet realistic and tractable models are developed for traders interested in hedging a portfolio. Results from a bootstrapping experiment used to construct confidence bands around the competing portfolios suggest that, whereas DP--GARCH outperforms the GARCH approach, they are statistically equivalent to the OLS approach when the markets are stable. Traders may achieve significant gains, however, by adopting the DP--GARCH model rather than the OLS approach when markets are volatile. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics in its journal European Review of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 471-500

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Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:29:y:2002:i:4:p:471-500

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  1. Lence, Sergio H. & Kimle, Kevin & Hayenga, Marvin L., 1992. "A Dynamic Minimum Variance Hedge," Staff General Research Papers 11414, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Karp, Larry S, 1988. "Dynamic Hedging with Uncertain Production," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(4), pages 621-37, November.
  3. Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin, 1981. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," CUDARE Working Paper Series 139R, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  4. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 249-66, April.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
  7. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-70, March.
  8. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun.
  9. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-30, November.
  10. Peter S. Sephton, 1993. "Optimal Hedge Ratios at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 175-93, February.
  11. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
  12. Pennings, Joost M. E. & M. Leuthold, Raymond, 2001. "Introducing new futures contracts: reinforcement versus cannibalism," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 659-675, October.
  13. Nance, Deana R & Smith, Clifford W, Jr & Smithson, Charles W, 1993. " On the Determinants of Corporate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 267-84, March.
  14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  15. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Rodt, Marc & Schäfer, Klaus, 2005. "Absicherung von Strompreisrisiken mit Futures: Theorie und Empirie," Freiberg Working Papers 2005,18, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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