Estimation of Time-Varying Hedge Ratios for Corn and Soybeans: BGARCH and Random Coefficient Approaches
AbstractThis paper deals with the estimation of optimal hedge ratios. A number of recent papers have demonstrated that the ordinary least squares (OLS) method which gives constant hedge ratio is inappropriate and recommended the use of bivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (BGARCH) model. In this paper we introduce the use of a random coefficient autoregressive (RCAR) model to estimate time varying hedge ratios. Using daily data of spot and futures prices of corn and soybeans we find substantial presence of conditional heteroskedasticity, and also of random coefficients in the regressions of return from the spot market on the return from the futures markets. Hedging performance in terms of variance reduction of returns from alternative models are also conducted. For our data set diagonal vech presentation of BGARCH model provides the largest reduction in the variance of the return portfolio.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9712007.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 18 Dec 1997
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on PC; to print on HP Laserjet; pages: 35; figures: included. Office for Futures and Options Research (OFOR) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Working Paper 97-06. For a complete list of OFOR working papers see
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://184.108.40.206
Optimal Hedge Ratios; Conditional Heteroskedasticity; BGARCH;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
- Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Bera, A.K. & Higgins, M.L., 1990. "A Test For Conditional Heterskedasticity In Time Series Midels," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9003, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
- Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1980. " Hedging and Joint Production: Theory and Illustrations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 487-98, May.
- Tong, Wilson H. S., 1996. "An examination of dynamic hedging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 19-35, February.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1980. "Some identification and estimation results for regression models with stochastically varying coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-363, August.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Y.K. Tse & Albert K.C. Tsui, 2000.
"A Multivariate GARCH Model with Time-Varying Correlations,"
- Y. K. Tse & Albert K. C. Tsui, 2000. "A Multivariate GARCH Model with Time-Varying correlations," Econometrics 0004010, EconWPA.
- Yiu Kuen Tse & Albert K. C. Tsui, 2000. "A Multivariate GARCH Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0250, Econometric Society.
- Kin-Yip Ho & Ka Cheng Tsui, 2004. "Volatility Dynamics of the Tokyo Stock Exchange: A Sectoral Analysis based on the Multivariate GARCH Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Yang, Jian & Awokuse, Titus O., 2002.
"Asset Storability And Hedging Effectiveness In Commodity Futures Markets,"
15826, University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
- Jian Yang & Titus Awokuse, 2003. "Asset storability and hedging effectiveness in commodity futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 487-491.
- Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K Tsui, 2008.
"Volatility Dynamics in Foreign Exchange Rates: Further Evidence from the Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore Dollar,"
SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series
0805, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
- Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K Tsui, 2008. "Volatility Dynamics in Foreign Exchange Rates : Further Evidence from the Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore Dollar," Finance Working Papers 22571, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Maria CARACOTA DIMITRIU & Ioana – Diana PAUN, 2012. "Short Term Hedging Using Futures Contracts," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 15(2), pages 436-445, December.
- Tejeda, Hernan A. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Pelletier, Denis, 2009. "A State Dependent Regime Switching Model of Dynamic Correlations," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49370, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Bera, Anil K. & Kim, Sangwhan, 2002. "Testing constancy of correlation and other specifications of the BGARCH model with an application to international equity returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 171-195, March.
- Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2005.
"A Bivariate Markov Regime Switching GARCH Approach to Estimate Time Varying Minimum Variance Hedge Ratios,"
- Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2007. "A bivariate Markov regime switching GARCH approach to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1253-1265.
- Anton Bekkerman, 2011. "Time-varying hedge ratios in linked agricultural markets," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 179-200, July.
- Mark R. Manfredo & Raymond M. Leuthold, 2001. "Market risk and the cattle feeding margin: An application of Value-at-Risk," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 333-353.
- Moawia Alghalith & Ricardo Lalloob, 2012. "A General Empirical Model of Hedging," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
- Amir Alizadeh & Manolis Kavussanos & David Menachof, 2004. "Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1337-1353.
- de Ville, e Goyet, C, 2007. "Comparing conditional hedging strategies," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/175387, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Jose A. Lopez & Christian A. Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37609, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Wagner Oliveira Monteiro & Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno, 2011. "Dynamic Hedging inMarkov Regimes Switching," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 136, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Prasad Bhattacharaya & Harminder Singh & Gerard Gannon, 2006. "Time-Varying Hedge Ratios: An Application to the Indian Stock Futures Market," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2006_03, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Christos Floros & Dimitrios Vougas, 2004. "Hedge ratios in Greek stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1125-1136.
- Mark R. Manfredo. & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1999. "Market Risk Measurement and the Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application of Value-at-Risk," Finance 9908002, EconWPA.
- repec:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/6808 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.