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Using structural shocks to identify models of investment

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John M. Roberts

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Abstract

This paper uses the response of investment to identified structural shocks to investigate some key issues, including the nature of adjustment costs and investment's responsiveness to user cost. In the estimation, the model parameters are chosen to match as closely as possible the impulse responses from an identified VAR. In the preferred results, both investment- and capital-stock adjustment costs are important; the size of the capital-stock adjustment costs is in line with estimates from firm-level studies; the investment-adjustment costs suggest rapid adjustment of investment to its desired level; and the estimated elasticity of substitution between capital and other inputs is considerably smaller than one. There is, however, an important sensitivity: The VAR's identified aggregate demand shock leads to a large crowding out effect--when output expands, investment falls. When this shock is included among those matched, the elasticity of substitution is near one and only investment adjustment costs are important.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2005-69.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2005-69

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Keywords: Investments ; Econometric models;

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  1. Chirinko, Robert S, 1993. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1875-1911, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg, 1995. "Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment," Working Papers 95-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  3. David E. Lebow & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2003. "Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 159-201, March.
  4. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 673, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. John M. Roberts, 2003. "Modeling aggregate investment: a fundamentalist approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2006. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Working Papers 12353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 1999. "Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2004. "Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 305-325, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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