Modeling aggregate investment: a fundamentalist approach
AbstractThis paper applies some lessons from recent estimation of investment models with firm-level data to the aggregate data with an eye to rehabilitating convex costs of adjusting the capital stock. In recent firm-level work, the response of investment to output and other "fundamental" variables is interpreted in terms of the traditional convex-adjustment-cost model, implying annual capital-stock adjustment speeds on the order of 15 to 35 percent. In aggregate data, I find that this "fundamentalist" model can account for the reduced-form effect of output on investment and the estimated capital-stock adjustment speed is similar to those from firm-level studies B--around 25 percent per year. To account for the slower adjustment to changes in the cost of capital, I consider a model in which the capital-intensity of production is also costly to adjust. I find that this model can account for the reduced-form effects of both output and the cost of capital on investment.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-48.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen Oliner & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993.
"New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August.
- Matthew D. Shapiro, 1984.
"The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
735, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg, 1993.
"Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
93-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg, 1995. "Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment," Working Papers 95-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Gilchrist, S. & Himmelberg, C.P., 1995. "Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment," Papers 95-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1996.
"Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 277-344
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1996. "Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan," NBER Working Papers 5546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
- Campbell, John, 1994.
"Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model,"
3196342, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
- John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 4188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
- Roberts, John M., 1997.
"Is inflation sticky?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
- Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
- Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1983.
"The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
1122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March.
- Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1988. "Estimation of the Internal Adjustment Costs Model Using Longitudinal Establishment Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 421-30, August.
- William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John M. Roberts, 2005. "Using structural shocks to identify models of investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fazzari, Steven M. & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2010. "Investment and the Taylor rule in a dynamic Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2010-2022, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.