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Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules

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Author Info
William B. English
William R. Nelson
Brian P. Sack
Abstract

Many researchers have found that the lagged interest rate enters estimated monetary policy rules with overwhelming significance. However, a recent paper by Rudebusch (2002) argues that the lagged interest rate is not a fundamental component of the U.S. policy rule, and that its significance arises from the omission of serially correlated variables from the policy rule. This paper demonstrates that, contrary to Rudebusch's claims, these two hypotheses can be directly distinguished in the estimation of the policy rule. Our findings indicate that while serially correlated omitted variables may be present, the lagged interest rate enters the policy rule on its own right and plays an important role in describing the behavior of the federal funds rate.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2002-24.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-24

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Volker Wieland, 1998. "Monetary policy and uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 1999. "The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 47-64. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Brian Sack, 2003. "A monetary policy rule based on nominal and inflation-indexed treasury yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Fiscal Storms: Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 200810, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. René Lalonde, 2005. "Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 05-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Habit formation and its implications for small open economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 11, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored" rules. Does one fit (or hide) all?," HEI Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bunzel, Helle & Enders, Walter, 2005. "Is the Taylor Rule Missing? A Statistical Investigation," Staff General Research Papers 12301, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Monetary Policy Objectives in Open Economies: The Experience of Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 298, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  10. repec:bep:maccon:v:4:y:2004:i:1:p:1169-1169 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 14561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Macroeconomics 0403009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. John M. Roberts, 2003. "Modeling aggregate investment: a fundamentalist approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2005. "``Taylored'' Rules. Does One Fit All?," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/06, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  16. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy: Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 300, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  17. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2003. "Interest rate rules and multiple equilibria in the small open economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 785, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Paolo Zagaglia, 2006. "How reliable are Taylor rules? A view from asymmetry in the U.S. Fed funds rate," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(14), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
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