IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v114y2022ics0140988322004467.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil sentiment and the U.S. inflation premium

Author

Listed:
  • Alturki, Sultan
  • Olson, Eric

Abstract

In this paper, we employ a new dataset to measure the impact of investor sentiment regarding oil prices on the U.S. inflation premium. Our empirical analysis relies on Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and out-of-sample forecasts. The results indicate that a one standard deviation positive shock to overall investor sentiment regarding oil prices results in a significant increase in the U.S. inflation premium by approximately 1.2% over the subsequent 10 weeks. Compared to individual investor sentiment, institutional investor sentiment regarding oil prices has a larger impact on the U.S. inflation premium. Finally, we find an out-of-sample evidence that the overall investor sentiment regarding oil prices has predictive power on the U.S. inflation premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Alturki, Sultan & Olson, Eric, 2022. "Oil sentiment and the U.S. inflation premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:114:y:2022:i:c:s0140988322004467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988322004467
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106317?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    3. Mustafa Sayim & Pamela D. Morris & Hamid Rahman, 2013. "The effect of US individual investor sentiment on industry‐specific stock returns and volatility," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 58-76, September.
    4. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    6. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Bermingham, Adam, 2015. "Sentiment in oil markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 179-185.
    7. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2010. "Modeling the dynamics of inflation compensation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 157-167, January.
    8. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
    9. Richard W. Sias, 2004. "Institutional Herding," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 165-206.
    10. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Sudarshan Jayaraman & Venky Nagar, 2013. "Exit as Governance: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
    11. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    12. Kajuth, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2011. "Inflation expectations from index-linked bonds: Correcting for liquidity and inflation risk premia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 225-235, June.
    13. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    14. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    15. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
    16. Edelen, Roger M. & Ince, Ozgur S. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 2016. "Institutional investors and stock return anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 472-488.
    17. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    18. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    19. Azi Ben-Rephael & Zhi Da & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2017. "It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3009-3047.
    20. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
    21. Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
    22. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2013. "Overconfidence, experience, and professionalism: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-101.
    23. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2013. "New Evidence on the Information and Predictive Content of the Baltic Dry Index," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-19, July.
    24. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    25. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    26. Akhtar, Shumi & Faff, Robert & Oliver, Barry & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1239-1249, May.
    27. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    28. Dowling, Michael & Cummins, Mark & Lucey, Brian M., 2016. "Psychological barriers in oil futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 293-304.
    29. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    31. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    32. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    33. Mustafa Sayim & Pamela D. Morris & Hamid Rahman, 2013. "The effect of US individual investor sentiment on industry‐specific stock returns and volatility," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 58-76, September.
    34. Soojin Jo, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Global Real Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1113-1135, September.
    35. Alberto Cavallo & Roberto Rigobon, 2016. "The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 151-178, Spring.
    36. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    37. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    38. Van Rixtel, Adrian & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a Central Bank perspective," Occasional Paper Series 62, European Central Bank.
    39. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Oil and the short-term predictability of stock return volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 90-104.
    40. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
    41. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    2. Yu, Dan & Chen, Chuang & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Hedging pressure momentum and the predictability of oil futures returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    2. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2022. "The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions," Working Papers No 07/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    8. Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Klingler, Linda, 2022. "The effect of sentiment on institutional investors: A gender analysis," CFR Working Papers 22-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Le, Thai Hong & Luong, Anh Tram, 2022. "Dynamic spillovers between oil price, stock market, and investor sentiment: Evidence from the United States and Vietnam," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    11. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    14. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.
    15. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Wahab, M.I.M. & Zhang, Yaojie, 2018. "Forecasting the aggregate oil price volatility in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 320-332.
    17. Dominik Bertsche, 2019. "The effects of oil supply shocks on the macroeconomy: a Proxy-FAVAR approachThe effects of oil supply shocks on the macroeconomy: a Proxy-FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    18. Byrne, Joseph P & Lorusso, Marco & Xu, Bing, 2017. "Oil Prices and Informational Frictions: The Time-Varying Impact of Fundamentals and Expectations," MPRA Paper 80668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    20. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhou, Liyun, 2015. "Investor trading behavior, investor sentiment and asset prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-62.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil sentiment; Inflation premium; Individual and institutional investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:114:y:2022:i:c:s0140988322004467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.