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Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?

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Author Info
Neal, Robert
Wheatley, Simon M.
Abstract

It has long been market folklore that the best time to buy stocks is when individual investors are bearish, and the best time to sell is when individual investors are bullish. We examine the forecast power of three popular measures of individual investor sentiment: the level of discounts on closed-end funds, the ratio of odd-lot sales to purchases, and net mutual fund redemptions. Using data from 1933 to 1993, we find that fund discounts and net redemptions predict the size premium, the difference between small and large firm returns, but little evidence that the odd-lot ratio predicts returns.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0022109000001058
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 33 (1998)
Issue (Month): 04 (December)
Pages: 523-547
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:33:y:1998:i:04:p:523-547_00

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  1. Han, Bin, 2004. "Limits of Arbitrage, Sentiment and Pricing Kernal: Evidences from Index Options," Working Paper Series 2004-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-337, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard Kum-yew Lai, 2005. "Inventory and the Stock Market," Finance 0509006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eric J. Higgins & Richard L. Ott & Robert A. Van Ness, 2006. "The Information Content of the 1999 Announcement of Funds from Operations (FFO) Changes for Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 241-256. [Downloadable!]
  6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Thomas Lux, 2008. "Sentiment Dynamics and Stock Returns: The Case of the German Stock Market," Kiel Working Papers 1470, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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