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Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation Compensation

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Author Info

  • Markus Jochmann

    ()
    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Gary Koop

    ()
    (University of Strathclyde, Rimini Center for Economic Analysis.)

  • Simon M. Potter

    ()
    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between short-term and long-term in‡ation expectations using daily data on in‡ation compen- sation. We use a ‡exible econometric model which allows us to uncover this relationship in a data-based manner. We relate our ndings to the issue of whether in‡ation expectations are anchored, unmoored or contained. Our empirical results indicate no support for either unmoored or rmly anchored in‡ation expectations. Most evidence indicates that in‡ation expectations are contained.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 15_09.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision: Jan 2009
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:15_09

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  1. Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July.
  4. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  5. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  7. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  8. Jennifer Roush & William Dudley & Michelle Steinberg Ezer, 2008. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Staff Reports 353, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Schotman, Peter C. & Schweitzer, Mark, 2000. "Horizon sensitivity of the inflation hedge of stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 301-315, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79889, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Duran, Murat & Gülşen, Eda, 2013. "Estimating inflation compensation for Turkey using yield curves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 592-601.
  3. Till Strohsal & Lars Winkelmann, 2012. "Assessing the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. Lemke, Wolfgang & Strohsal, Till, 2013. "What Can Break-Even Inflation Rates Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79794, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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