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Modeling the dynamics of inflation compensation

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Author Info

  • Jochmann, Markus
  • Koop, Gary
  • Potter, Simon M.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between short-term and long-term inflation expectations using daily data on inflation compensation derived from the term structure of real and nominal interest rates. We use a flexible econometric model which allows us to uncover this relationship in a data-based manner. We relate our findings to the issue of whether inflation expectations are anchored, unmoored or contained. Our empirical results indicate no support for either unmoored or firmly anchored inflation expectations. Most evidence indicates that inflation expectations are contained.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 157-167

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:157-167

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

Related research

Keywords: Inflation compensation Bayesian Nonlinear time series State space model;

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References

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  1. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Jennifer Roush & William Dudley & Michelle Steinberg Ezer, 2008. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Staff Reports 353, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  4. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1996. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference And Comparison With Arch Models," Econometrics 9610002, EconWPA.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  6. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  8. Schotman, Peter C. & Schweitzer, Mark, 2000. "Horizon sensitivity of the inflation hedge of stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 301-315, November.
  9. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lemke, Wolfgang & Strohsal, Till, 2013. "What Can Break-Even Inflation Rates Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79794, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Till Strohsal & Lars Winkelmann, 2012. "Assessing the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Dräger, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," KOF Working papers 13-339, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  4. Duran, Murat & Gülşen, Eda, 2013. "Estimating inflation compensation for Turkey using yield curves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 592-601.
  5. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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