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Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows

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  • Ben-Rephael, Azi
  • Kandel, Shmuel
  • Wohl, Avi

Abstract

We investigate a proxy for monthly shifts between bond funds and equity funds in the USA: aggregate net exchanges of equity funds. This measure (which is negatively related to changes in VIX) is positively contemporaneously correlated with aggregate stock market excess returns: One standard deviation of net exchanges is related to 1.95% of market excess return. Our main new finding is that 85% (all) of the contemporaneous relation is reversed within four (ten) months. The effect is stronger in smaller stocks and in growth stocks. These findings support the notion of “noise” in aggregate market prices induced by investor sentiment.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 104 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 363-382

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:104:y:2012:i:2:p:363-382

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

Related research

Keywords: Mutual funds; Flows; Investor sentiment; Return predictability; Stocks;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fabian Irek & Thorsten Lehnert, 2013. "Do Fund Investors Know that Risk is Sometimes not Priced?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-1, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  2. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3060-3070.
  3. Alexakis, Christos & Dasilas, Apostolos & Grose, Chris, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamic relations between stock prices and mutual fund units in Japan. An application of hidden cointegration technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-8.
  4. Fabian Irek & Thorsten Lehnert, 2013. "Do Fund Investors Know that Risk is Sometimes not Priced?," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-1, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  5. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D. & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "Seasonal asset allocation: Evidence from mutual fund flows," CFR Working Papers 13-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  6. Kadan, Ohad & Madureira, Leonardo & Wang, Rong & Zach, Tzachi, 2012. "Analysts' industry expertise," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 95-120.
  7. Chalmers, John & Kaul, Aditya & Phillips, Blake, 2013. "The wisdom of crowds: Mutual fund investors’ aggregate asset allocation decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3318-3333.
  8. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Richard D.F. Harris & : Ruogu Zhang, 2013. "Ambiguity Aversion and Stock Market Participation: Evidence from Fund Flows," Working Papers wpn13-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  9. Francisca Beer & Fabrice Hervé & Mohamed Zouaoui, 2013. "Is Big Brother Watching Us? Google, Investor Sentiment and the Stock Market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 454-466.

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