Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields

Author Info

Jens H. E. Christensen
Jose A. Lopez
Glenn D. Rudebusch

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Differences between yields on comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so-called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage-free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and inflation risk premiums, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2008-34.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-34

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
Phone: (415) 974-2000
Fax: (415) 974-3333
Email:
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.frbsf.org/popups/fiporder.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-01-10 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2009-01-10 (Central Banking)
NEP-MAC-2009-01-10 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2009-01-10 (Monetary Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Working Paper Series 2007-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
Don H. Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005. "Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Athanasios Orphanides & Don H. Kim, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 474, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?," Working Paper Series 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Stefania D'Amico & Don H Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," BIS Working Papers 248, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2004. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2007. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-030, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
- Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," NBER Working Papers 14463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Duffee, Gregory R, 1996. " Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 527-51, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?," Working Paper Series 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1696, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," NBER Working Papers 14463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-030, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer with RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.