Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy
AbstractThrough explicitly incorporating analysts' forecasts as observable factors in a dynamic arbitrage- free model of the yield curve, this paper proposes a framework for studying the impact of shifts in market sentiment on interest rates of all maturities. An empirical examination reveals that survey expectations about in°ation, output growth and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Although perceptions about in°ation are largely responsible for movements in long-term interest rates, an explicit slope factor is necessary to adequately capture the dynamics of the yield curve. Macroeconomic forecasts play an important role in explaining time-variation in the market prices of risk, with forecasted GDP growth playing a dominant role. The estimated coe±cients from a forward-looking monetary policy rule support the assertion that the central bank preemptively reacts to in°ationary expectations while suggesting patience in accommodating real output growth expectations. Models of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations due to the arrival of news or central bank statements and announcements.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0512006.
Length: 1 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 1
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term structure; interest rates; affine model; forward-looking policy rule; macro-finance; no-arbitrage; blue-chip forecasts; survey data;
Other versions of this item:
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-12-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2005-12-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FIN-2005-12-14 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-12-14 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2005-12-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2005-12-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-12-14 (Monetary Economics)
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