Inflation risk premia in the US and the euro area
AbstractWe use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future horizons, as well as term structure data from both nominal and index-linked bonds. Our results show that, in both currency areas, inflation risk premia are relatively small, positive, and increasing in maturity. The cyclical dynamics of long-term inflation risk premia are mostly associated with changes in output gaps, while their high-frequency fluctuations seem to be aligned with variations in inflation. However, the cyclicality of inflation premia differs between the US and the euro area. Long term inflation premia are countercyclical in the euro area, while they are procyclical in the US.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 325.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
term structure of interest rates; inflation risk premia; central bank credibility;
Other versions of this item:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-11-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-11-27 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-11-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-11-27 (Monetary Economics)
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