This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2005-12-09 (All new papers)
• NEP-FIN-2005-12-09 (Finance)
• NEP-FOR-2005-12-09 (Forecasting)
• NEP-MAC-2005-12-09 (Macroeconomics)

1. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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   • Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2006. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
   • Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Albert Lee Chun, 2005. "Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy," Finance 0512006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
3. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Jackknifing Bond Option Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 707-742. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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   • Jun Yu & Peter Phillips, 2004. "Jackknifing Bond Option Prices," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 115, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
   • Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2003. "Jackknifing Bond Option Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1392, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
4. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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   • John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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5. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
6. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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   • Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
   • Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
7. Mayshar, Joram, 1983. "On Divergence of Opinion and Imperfections in Capital Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 114-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
8. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
9. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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   • Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "Are Market Forecasts Rational?," NBER Working Papers 0507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "Are Market Forecasts Rational?," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 59-75 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
11. Pennacchi, George G, 1991. "Identifying the Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Evidence Using Survey Data," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 53-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
12. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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    • Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
13. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • John Y. CAMPBELL & Luis VICEIRA, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," FAME Research Paper Series rp5, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering. [Downloadable!]
    • John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2000. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1895, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    • John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," NBER Working Papers 6801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
14. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
15. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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    • Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
16. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March. [Downloadable!]
17. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
18. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
19. Jagannathan, Ravi & Kaplin, Andrew & Sun, Steve, 2003. "An evaluation of multi-factor CIR models using LIBOR, swap rates, and cap and swaption prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 113-146. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Ravi Jagannathan & Andrew Kaplin & Steve Guoqiang Sun, 2001. "An Evaluation of Multi-Factor CIR Models Using LIBOR, Swap Rates, and Cap and Swaption Prices," NBER Working Papers 8682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
20. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1996. "Unit roots and the estimation of interest rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 215-238, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
21. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
22. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2000. "An empirical examination of the convexity bias in the pricing of interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 239-279, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Anurag Gupta, 1998. "An Empirical Examination of the Convexity Bias in the Pricing of Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-068, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    • Anurag Gupta & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of the Convexity Bias in the Pricing of Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-001, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
23. Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: What Central Bankers Could Learn from Academics--And Vice Versa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 3-19, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
24. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
25. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-75, April.
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    • Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 115, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    • Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
26. Langetieg, Terence C, 1980. " A Multivariate Model of the Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 71-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
27. Duffee, Gregory R, 1996. " Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 527-51, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
28. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "The opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
29. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1980. "Survey evidence on the `rationality' of interest rate expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-465, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
30. Jefferson Duarte, 2004. "Evaluating an Alternative Risk Preference in Affine Term Structure Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 379-404. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
31. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "The recent shift in term structure behavior from a no-arbitrage macro-finance perspective," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    • Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]