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Jackknifing Bond Option Prices

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Author Info
Peter C. B. Phillips

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Abstract

Prices of interest rate derivative securities depend crucially on the mean reversion parameters of the underlying diffusions. These parameters are subject to estimation bias when standard methods are used. The estimation bias can be substantial even in very large samples and much more serious than the discretization bias, and it translates into a bias in pricing bond options and other derivative securities that is important in practical work. This article proposes a very general and computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on Quenouille's (1956; Biometrika, 43, 353--360) jackknife. We show how the method can be applied directly to the options price itself as well as the coefficients in the models. We investigate its performance in a Monte Carlo study. Empirical applications to U.S. dollar swap rates highlight the differences between bond and option prices implied by the jackknife procedure and those implied by the standard approach. These differences are large and suggest that bias reduction in pricing options is important in practical applications. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhi018
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 18 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 707-742
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:18:y:2005:i:2:p:707-742

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2007. "Simulation-based Estimation of Contingent-claims Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1596, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Balázs Cserna, 2008. "Application of the Generalized Method of Moments for Estimating Continuous-Time Models of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers 0462, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," International Finance Discussion Papers 932, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2005. "A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach to the Estimation for Diffusion Processes from Discrete Observations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1523, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Peter Robinson, 2007. "On Discrete Sampling Of Time-Varyingcontinuous-Time Systems," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2007/520, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2007. "Maximum Likelihood and Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1597, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2005. "Comments on “A Selective Overview of Nonparametric Methods in Financial Econometrics” by Jianqing Fan," Working Papers 08-2005, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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