Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Albert Lee Chun

    (Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

Through explicitly incorporating analysts' forecasts as observable factors in a dynamic arbitrage-free model of the yield curve, this research proposes a framework for studying the impact of shifts in market sentiment on interest rates of all maturities. An empirical examination reveals that survey expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations while accommodating output growth and monetary policy expectations. Forecasted GDP growth plays a significant role in explaining time variation in the market prices of risk. The sensitivity of long yields is linked to the persistence of expected inflation under the risk-neutral measure. Models of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www-siepr.stanford.edu/repec/sip/04-023.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in its series Discussion Papers with number 04-023.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision: Nov 2010
Handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:04-023

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 366 Galvez Street, Stanford, California 94305-6015
Phone: (650) 725-1874
Fax: (650) 723-8611
Web page: http://siepr.stanford.edu
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: term structure; interest rates; affine model; forward-looking policy rules; macro-finance; no-arbitrage; blue chip forecasts; survey data;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:04-023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Shor).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.