An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates

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An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates

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Don H. Kim
Jonathan H. Wright

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Jonathan H. Wright

Abstract

This paper reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates since the middle of 2004 to a fall in term premiums. A variant of the model that incorporates inflation data indicates that about two-thirds of the decline in nominal term premiums owes to a fall in real term premiums, but estimated compensation for inflation risk has diminished as well.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2005-33.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2005-33

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-10-04 (All new papers)
NEP-FMK-2005-10-04 (Financial Markets)
NEP-MAC-2005-10-04 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2005-10-04 (Monetary Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March. [Downloadable!]
Langetieg, Terence C, 1980. " A Multivariate Model of the Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 71-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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