This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
R. Velazquez
A.E. Noriega
L.M. Soria

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We analyze the issue of the impact of multiple breaks on monetary neutrality results, using annual data on real output and monetary aggregates for Argentina (1884-1996), Australia (1870-1997), Brazil (1912-1995), Canada (1870-2001), Italy (1870-1997), Mexico (1932-2000), Sweeden (1871-1988), and the UK (1871-2000). In particular, we empirically verify, whether neutrality propositions remain addressable (and if so, whether they hold or not), when unit root tests are carried out allowing for multiple structural breaks in the long-run trend function of the variables. It is found that conclusions on neutrality are sensitive to the number of breaks allowed. In order to interpret the evidence for structural breaks, we utilize a notion of deterministic monetary neutrality, which naturally arises in the absence of permanent stochastic shocks to the variables. We utilize a resampling procedure based on the fact that changes in the trend function bias unit root tests towards a non-rejection. In particular, using a dynamic programming algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the RSS for locating breaks, we simulate the distribution of the t-statistic for the null hypothesis of a unit root, under the hypotheses that the true models are both a Trend Stationary (TS) model with up to four structural breaks, and a Difference-Stationary (DS) model, both estimated from the data. We then compare the position where the sample estimate of the t-statistic for testing a unit root lies relative to the empirical densities of the t-statistic, under both the estimated TS and DS models. We present evidence in favour of models in which the cycle fluctuates in a stationary way around a broken trend. In other words, the (unit root) permanent stochastic changes vanish, giving rise to stationary behaviour affected by infrequent structural breaks. This leads to interesting questions about the testing for monetary neutrality, and allows us to introduce the concept of deterministic monetary neutrality.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.7482.1080751251.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 57.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:57

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money; Stationarity; Structural Breaks; Resampling Methods;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hayakawa, Hiroaki, 1995. "The complete complementarity of consumption and real balances and the strong superneutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Aggarwal, Raj & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Monserrat, 2000. "Evidence of long-run purchasing power parity: analysis of real asian exchange rates in terms of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 351-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    Other versions:
  4. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
    Other versions:
  6. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1995. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard: can they be explained by the trend break model?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 539-548, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2001. "Testing for Common Deterministic Trend Slopes," Working Papers 01-15, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Richard Startz, 1998. "Growth States and Shocks," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0064, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Marty, Alvin L., 1994. "What is the neutrality of money?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 407-409, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Serletis, Apostolos & Krause, David, 1996. "Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-327, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Durlauf, Steven N, 1993. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 349-66, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77. [Downloadable!]
  18. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Serletis, Apostolos & Koustas, Zisimos, 1998. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 1-25, February.
    Other versions:
  21. Bental, Benjamin & Eden, Bemjamin, 1996. "Money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 445-459, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Wallace, Frederick H, 1999. "Long-Run Neutrality of Money in the Mexican Economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 637-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  24. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Sep 1987. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    Other versions:
  28. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Zelhorst, Dick & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Testing for a Break in Output: New International Evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 357-62, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Meng, Qinglai, 2003. "Multiple transitional growth paths in endogenously growing open economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 365-376, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Raj, Baldev, 1992. "International Evidence on Persistence in Output in the Presence of an Episodic Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 281-93, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
  35. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Gottardi Piero, 1994. "On the Non-neutrality of Money with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 209-220, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  39. Cooper, Russell, 1994. "Equilibrium Selection in Imperfectly Competitive Economies with Multiple Equilibria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1106-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Duck, N W, 1992. "UK Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 426-39, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  41. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
  43. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  44. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  46. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    Other versions:
  47. Faria, Joao Ricardo, 2001. "Habit formation in a monetary growth model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 51-55, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  48. SangKun Bae & Mark J. Jensen, 1998. "Long-Run Neutrality in a Long-Memory Model," Macroeconomics 9809006, EconWPA, revised 30 Sep 1998. [Downloadable!]
  49. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  50. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1997. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 756-59, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  51. Pollock, D. S. G., 2001. "Methodology for trend estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-96, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All the bibliographic data shown here has been contributed by volunteers, thereby helping to keep this service free.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-6.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.