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Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?

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  • Andreas Billmeier

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10368-009-0144-1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal International Economics and Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 391-419

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Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:6:y:2009:i:4:p:391-419

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=111059

Related research

Keywords: Output gap; Potential output; Inflation forecasting; E31; E32; E37;

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References

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  1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
  3. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  6. Jagjit Chadha & Charles Nolan, 2004. "Output, Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 271-287.
  7. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  8. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers 237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  10. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  11. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0728, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  13. Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
  14. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
  15. W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 1998. "Output gap and inflation in the EU," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 550, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  16. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  17. Fabio Scacciavillani & Phillip Swagel, 1999. "Measures of Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 99/96, International Monetary Fund.
  18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Francisco Nadal-De Simone & Luc Everaert, 2003. "Capital Operating Time and total Factor Productivity Growth in France," IMF Working Papers 03/128, International Monetary Fund.
  20. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  21. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2010. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries," Working Papers IES 2010/26, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2010.
  2. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Hetschko, Clemens & Quint, Dominic & Thye, Marius, 2012. "Nationale Schuldenbremsen für die Länder der Europäischen Union: Taugt das deutsche Modell als Vorbild?," Discussion Papers 2012/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

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