Identification Using Stability Restrictions
Abstract
Structural change, typically induced by policy regime shifts, is a common feature of dynamic economic models. We show that structural change can be used constructively to improve the identification of structural parameters that are stable over time. A leading example is models that are immune to the well-known Lucas (1976) critique. This insight is used to develop novel econometric methods that extend the widely used generalized method of moments (GMM). The proposed methods yield improved inference in a leading macroeconomic policy model.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Tulane University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1116.Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tul:wpaper:1116
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 206 Tilton Hall, New Orleans, LA 70118
Phone: (504) 865-5321
Fax: (504) 865-5869
Web page: http://econ.tulane.edu
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: GMM; identification; structural stability; Lucas critique; new Keynesian models;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-04-23 (Econometrics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998.
"Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Arthur Lewbel, 2012.
"Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80, January.
- Arthur Lewbel, 2003. "Using Heteroskedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 587, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Dec 2010.
- Hendry, David F. & Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Co-Breaking: Recent Advances and a Synopsis of the Literature," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 33-51, January.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2005.
"Optimal Tests For Nested Model Selection With Underlying Parameter Instability,"
Econometric Theory,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(05), pages 962-990, October.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2002. "Optimal Tests for Nested Model Selection with Underlying Parameter Instability," Working Papers 02-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000.
"Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
- Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997.
"Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Vadim Marmer, 2005.
"Exactly Distribution-free Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with Possibly Weak Instruments,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1501, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W.K. & Marmer, Vadim, 2008. "Exactly distribution-free inference in instrumental variables regression with possibly weak instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 183-200, January.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 2000.
"Testing for structural change in conditional models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate structural break test with Hansen's fixed regressor bootstrap," Statistical Software Components RTZ00089, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGHBREAK: RATS procedure to perform structural break test with bootstrapped p-values," Statistical Software Components RTS00176, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005.
"Inference with Weak Instruments,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1530, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Donald W. K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock, 2006. "Optimal Two-Sided Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 715-752, 05.
- Sbordone, Argia, 1998.
"Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness,"
Seminar Papers
653, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 199822, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Frank Kleibergen, 2001. "Testing Parameters in GMM without Assuming that they are identified," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-067/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004.
"Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?,"
Working Paper
2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1996. "Optimal Tests for Parameter Instability in the Generalized Method of Moments Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1085-1107, September.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009.
"Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments,"
Working Papers
09-10, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi & Raffaella Giacomini, 2010. "Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 10-29, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Fabio Canova, 2009. "Comment to "Weak instruments robust tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips curve" by Frank Kleibergen and Sophocles Mavroeidis," Economics Working Papers 1159, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Kleibergen, Frank & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2009. "Weak Instrument Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 293-311.
- Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, 07.
- Pierre Perron, 2005. "Dealing with Structural Breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Eric Zivot & Saraswata Chaudhuri, 2009. "A Comment on Weak Instrument Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers UWEC-2008-23-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
Citations
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tul:wpaper:1116For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Finlay).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

