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Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes

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  • Travaglini, Guido

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to empirically test for structural breaks of world mean temperatures that may have ignited at some date the phenomenon known as “Climate Change” or “Global Warming”. Estimation by means of the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments is conducted on a large dataset spanning the recordable period from 1850 until present, and different tests and selection procedures among competing model specifications are utilized, such as Principal Component and Principal Factor Analysis, instrument validity, overtime changes in parameters and in shares of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. The results of estimation unmistakably show no involvement of anthropogenic forcings and no occurrence of significant breaks in world mean temperatures. Hence the hypothesis of a climate change in the last 150 years, suggested by the advocates of Global Warming, is rejected. Pacific Decadal Oscillations, sunspots and the major volcanic eruptions play the lion’s share in determining world temperatures, the first being a dimmer and the others substantial warmers.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23600.

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Date of creation: 30 Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23600

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Keywords: Generalized Method of Moments; Global Warming; Principal Component and Factor Analysis; Structural Breaks.;

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