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Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity

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  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia
  • Antonio E. Noriega

Abstract

We study the phenomenon of spurious regression between two random variables when the generating mechanism for individual series follows a stationary process around a trend with (possibly) multiple breaks in its level and slope. We develop relevant asymptotic theory and show that spurious regression occurs independently of the structure assumed for the errors. In contrast to previous findings, the spurious relationship is less severe when breaks are present, whether or not the regression model includes a linear trend. Simulations confirm our asymptotic results and reveal that, in finite samples, the spurious regression is sensitive to the presence of a linear trend and to the relative locations of the breaks within the sample

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 186.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:186

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Keywords: Spurious regression; Structural breaks; Stationarity;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:gua:wpaper:em200601 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2008. "Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Efficient (HAE) Estimation and Pivots for Jointly Evolving Series," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-15, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  3. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2011. "A Simple Test for Spurious Regressions," CREATES Research Papers 2011-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. repec:gua:wpaper:em200503 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Antonio E. Noriega & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulà ria & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato, 2006. "Spurious regression and econometric trends," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 151, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  7. repec:gua:wpaper:em200701 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes," MPRA Paper 23600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Cointegration: The Engle-Granger Test in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2006-12, Banco de México.
  10. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
  11. Travaglini, Guido, 2008. "Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes," MPRA Paper 7108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Manuel Gómez Zaldivar & Oscar Manjarrez Castro & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Regresión espuria en especificaciones dinámicas," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 1-20, May.
  13. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2012. "The effect of structural breaks on the Engle-Granger test for cointegration," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 99-132.
  14. Granger, Clive W.J., 2012. "Useful conclusions from surprising results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 142-146.
  15. Jin, Hao & Zhang, Jinsuo & Zhang, Si & Yu, Cong, 2013. "The spurious regression of AR(p) infinite-variance sequence in the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-40.

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