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A CONVERGENT t-STATISTIC IN SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS

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  • Sun, Yixiao

Abstract

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of the t-statistic in spurious regressions when the bandwidth in the estimation of the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard error is set proportional to the sample size. Using autocovariances of large lags, the so-defined HAC estimator is capable of capturing the high persistence of the regressor and regression residuals. It is shown that the resulting t-statistic converges to a nondegenerate limiting distribution for all cases of spurious regressions considered in the literature. This finding sheds some new light on the nature of spurious regressions.I am very grateful to Bruce Hansen and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors and omissions are mine alone.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 20 (2004)
Issue (Month): 05 (October)
Pages: 943-962

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Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:20:y:2004:i:05:p:943-962_20

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Cited by:
  1. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2011. "A Simple Test for Spurious Regressions," CREATES Research Papers 2011-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Gueorgui I. Kolev, 2011. "The "spurious regression problem" in the classical regression model framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 925-937.
  3. Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes," MPRA Paper 23600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mototsugu Shintani & Tomoyoshi Yabu & and Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "Spurious Regressions in Technical Trading: Momentum or Contrarian?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  5. Shintani, Mototsugu & Yabu, Tomoyoshi & Nagakura, Daisuke, 2012. "Spurious regressions in technical trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 301-309.
  6. McElroy, Tucker S & Politis, D N, 2011. "Distribution Theory for the Studentized Mean for Long, Short, and Negative Memory Time Series," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0dr145dt, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  7. Sun, Yixiao, 2006. "Spurious regressions between stationary generalized long memory processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 446-454, March.

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