Spurious regressions in technical trading
AbstractThis paper investigates the spurious effect in forecasting asset returns when signals from technical trading rules are used as predictors. Against economic intuition, the simulation result shows that, even if past information has no predictive power, buy or sell signals based on the difference between the short-period and long-period moving averages of past asset prices can be statistically significant when the forecast horizon is relatively long. The theoretical analysis reveals that both ‘momentum’ and ‘contrarian’ strategies can be falsely supported, while the probability of obtaining each result depends on the type of the test statistics employed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 169 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom
Efficient market hypothesis; Nonstationary time series; Random walk; Technical analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Blake LeBaron, 1996.
"Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention,"
NBER Working Papers
5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
- LeBaron, B., 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreing Exchange Intervention," Working papers 9445r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA.
- Blake LeBaron, . "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working papers _002, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- Sun, Yixiao, 2004.
"A CONVERGENT t-STATISTIC IN SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 943-962, October.
- Sun, Yixiao, 2003. "A Convergent t-statistic in Spurious Regressions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt150457tv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998.
"Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp303, Financial Markets Group.
- Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," CEPR Discussion Papers 1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000.
"Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
251, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999.
"Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 269-298, June.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006.
"The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Tomoyoshi Yabu & and Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "Spurious Regressions in Technical Trading: Momentum or Contrarian?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991.
"Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns,"
90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.