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Profitability of Technical Stock Trading: Has it Moved from Daily to Intraday Data?

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

    (WIFO)

Abstract

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2,580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since the early 1990s. However, when based on 30-minutes data the same models produce an average gross return of 7.2 percent per year between 1983 and 2007. These results do not change substantially when trading is tested over eight subperiods. In particular, there is no clear trend of a declining profitability of technical stock trading based on 30-minutes data. Those 25 models which performed best over the most recent subperiod produce a significantly higher gross return over the subsequent subperiod than all models. Between 2001 and 2007 the 2,580 models perform worse than over the 1980s and 1990s. This result could be due to stock markets becoming more efficient recently or to stock price trends shifting from 30-minutes prices to prices of higher frequencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 323.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:323

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Keywords: Technical trading; stock price dynamics; momentum effect; reversal effect;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "A General Financial Transaction Tax: The Concept, its Justification and Effects," WIFO Working Papers 352, WIFO.
  2. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
  3. Lucey, Brian & Sevic, Aleksandar, 2010. "Investigating the determinants of banking coexceedances in Europe in the summer of 2008," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 275-283, July.
  4. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and the yen/dollar exchange rate 1976-2007," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 270-279, August.
  5. Holmberg, Ulf & Lönnbark, Carl & Lundström, Christian, 2012. "Assessing the profitability of intraday opening range breakout strategies," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 845, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  6. Martin Scholtus & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "High-Frequency Technical Trading: The Importance of Speed," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-018/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The Use of Technical Analysis by Fund Managers: International Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-446, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  8. Stephan Schulmeister, 2014. "A General Financial Transactions Tax. Motives, Effects and Implementation According to the Proposal of the European Commission," WIFO Working Papers 461, WIFO.

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