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The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test

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  • Park, Cheol-Ho
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

Numerous empirical studies have investigated the profitability of technical trading rules in a wide variety of markets, and many of them found positive profits. Despite positive evidence about profitability and improvements in testing procedures, skepticism about technical trading profits remains widespread among academics mainly due to data snooping problems. This study tries to mitigate the problems by confirming the results of a previous study and then replicating the original testing procedure on a new body of data. Results indicate that in 12 U.S. futures markets technical trading profits have gradually declined over time. Substantial technical trading profits during the 1978-1984 period are no longer available in the 1985-2003 period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics in its series AgMAS Project Research Reports with number 14771.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:uiucrr:14771

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Keywords: Marketing;

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Cited by:
  1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Profitability of Technical Stock Trading: Has it Moved from Daily to Intraday Data?," WIFO Working Papers 323, WIFO.
  2. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2012. "BREAKING INTO THE BLACKBOX: Trend Following, Stop Losses, and the Frequency of Trading: the case of the S&P500," Discussion Papers 12/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
  3. Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(1), April.
  4. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2008. "Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-198, February.
  5. Urcola, Hernan A. & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Has the Performance of the Hog Options Market Changed?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21479, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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