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The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics

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Author Info
Burton G. Malkiel
Abstract

Revolutions often spawn counterrevolutions and the efficient market hypothesis in finance is no exception. The intellectual dominance of the efficient-market revolution has more been challenged by economists who stress psychological and behaviorial elements of stock-price determination and by econometricians who argue that stock returns are, to a considerable extent, predictable. This survey examines the attacks on the efficient market hypothesis and the relationship between predictability and efficiency. I conclude that our stock markets are more efficient and less predictable than many recent academic papers would have us believe.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 17 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 59-82
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:17:y:2003:i:1:p:59-82

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," NBER Working Papers 7613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Werner F. M. De Bondt & Richard H. Thaler, 1994. "Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Zsuzsanna Fluck & Burton G. Malkiel & Richard E. Quandt, 1997. "The Predictability Of Stock Returns: A Cross-Sectional Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 176-183, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  8. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bagwell, Laurie Simon & Shoven, John B, 1989. "Cash Distributions to Shareholders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 129-40, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ball, Ray, 1978. "Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 103-126. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. " High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-26, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J. Albrecht & T. Verbeke & M. De Clercq, 2004. "Informational efficiency of the US SO2 permit market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/250, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stephen Bell & John Quiggin, 2004. "Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation," Australian Public Policy Program Working Papers WPP04_3, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14771, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2008. "Corporate Campaign Contributions as a Predictor for Abnormal Stock Returns after Presidential Elections," Working Papers 2008-18, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
  5. Acuña, Andrés & Pinto, Cristián, 2007. "Eficiencia del Mercado Accionario Chileno: Un Enfoque Dinámico usando Tests de Volatilidad
    [Chilean Stock Market Efficiency: A Dynamic Approach using Volatility Tests]    ," MPRA Paper 7387, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Laakkonen , Helinä, 2004. "The impact of macroeconomic news on exchange rate volatility," Research Discussion Papers 24/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Bernhard Eckwert & Burkhard Drees, 2005. "Asset Mispricing Due to Cognitive Dissonance," IMF Working Papers 05/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andersson, Patric, 2004. "How well do financial experts perform? A review of empirical research on performance of analysts, day-traders, forecasters, fund managers, investors, and stockbrokers," Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2004:9, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Market Efficiency Today," IEPR Working Papers 05.41, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
  11. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2006. "Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 135-175. [Downloadable!]
  12. Thorsten Hens & Peter Wöhrmann, 2007. "Strategic asset allocation and market timing: a reinforcement learning approach," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 369-381, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Marilyn Clark-Murphy & Paul Gerrans & Craig Speelman, 2009. "Return Chasing as a Driver in Individual Retirement Savings Investment Choices: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 4-19, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Daniel B Klein, 2004. "Ken Kam and Market Efficiency," Econ Journal Watch, Atlas Economic Research Foundation, vol. 1(1), pages 185-191, April. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2005. "Boom or Bubble in the US Real Estate Market?," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 260/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2005. "Asymmetric information and the lack of international portfolio diversification," Working Paper 05-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  17. Armin Shmilovici & Yoav Kahiri & Irad Ben-Gal & Shmuel Hauser, 2009. "Measuring the Efficiency of the Intraday Forex Market with a Universal Data Compression Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 131-154, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Jürgen Huber & Matthias Sutter & Michael Kirchler, 2004. "Is more information always better? Experimental financial markets with asymmetric information," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2005-13, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
  19. Yan, Robert & Nuttall, John & Ling, Charles, 2006. "Application of machine learning to short-term equity return prediction," MPRA Paper 2536, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  20. Olivier Brandouy & Philippe Mathieu, 2006. "A Broad-Spectrum Computational Approach for Market Efficiency," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 492, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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