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A Comprehensive Test of Futures Market Disequilibrium

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Author Info
Lukac, Louis P
Brorsen, B Wade

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Abstract

Whether or not trading with technical analysis is profitable is a controversial topic. This study seeks to add to our knowledge about this controversy by providing a comprehensive test of the profitability of technical trading systems. Trading is simulated for 23 trading systems on 30 futures markets for 11 years. All but two trading systems had significant gross returns. Thus, the results strongly reject the random walk model and suggest that disequilibrium models more appropriately describe daily futures prices. Although returns were less than expected by many users of these systems, several systems did generate returns significantly above transaction costs. The results for net returns are not conclusive, but they suggest there may be causes of disequilibrium beyond transaction costs. No conclusion is made about market efficiency since possible causes of disequilibrium beyond transaction costs exist. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Eastern Finance Association in its journal The Financial Review.

Volume (Year): 25 (1990)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 593-622
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:25:y:1990:i:4:p:593-622

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Web page: http://www.easternfinance.org/
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Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0732-8516

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

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  1. Klumpp, Joni M. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2005. "The Impact of Marketing Strategy Information on the Producer's Selling Decision," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19036, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. C.L. Dunis & Jason Laws & Ben Evans, 2006. "Trading futures spreads: an application of correlation and threshold filters," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 903-914, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kin Lam & Li Wei, . "Optimal Trading Strategy When Return Process is AR(1)," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 16, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "A Reality Check on Technical Trading Rule Profits in US Futures Markets," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19039, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1997. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Finance 9711004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14771, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
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