IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/fmktpm/v35y2021i4d10.1007_s11408-021-00385-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Have trend-following signals in commodity futures markets become less reliable in recent years?

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin R. Auer

    (Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg
    University of Leipzig
    CESifo Munich)

Abstract

Various trend-following trading rules have been shown to be valuable for predicting market directions and thus the formulation of investment strategies. However, recent equity market research has provided striking evidence that the predictive power of such rules appears to diminish over time due to increased investor attention and lowered arbitrage barriers. Given that trend-following rules are also very successful and have been widely used in futures markets, we analyze whether a similar effect can be observed for commodity futures contracts. Using a trend regression approach based on time-varying success ratios, we detect significantly higher predictive accuracy for cross-sectional than for time-series strategies. In addition, with the exception of a few commodities, we find no significant trending behavior in trading rule reliability. These results, which are robust in a variety of settings, indicate strong momentum stability in futures markets and justify the application of this class of trading rules in commodity futures investing.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Have trend-following signals in commodity futures markets become less reliable in recent years?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 533-553, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:35:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s11408-021-00385-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-021-00385-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11408-021-00385-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11408-021-00385-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bajgrowicz, Pierre & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 473-491.
    2. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    3. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2015. "Combining momentum with reversal in commodity futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-444.
    4. Athina Georgopoulou & Jiaguo (George) Wang, 2017. "The Trend Is Your Friend: Time-Series Momentum Strategies across Equity and Commodity Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1557-1592.
    5. Ratner, Mitchell & Leal, Ricardo P. C., 1999. "Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1887-1905, December.
    6. Hong, Harrison & Yogo, Motohiro, 2012. "What does futures market interest tell us about the macroeconomy and asset prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 473-490.
    7. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    8. Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Technical Analysis and Liquidity Provision," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1043-1071.
    9. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    10. R. Rosillo & D. de la Fuente & J. A. L. Brugos, 2013. "Technical analysis and the Spanish stock exchange: testing the RSI, MACD, momentum and stochastic rules using Spanish market companies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1541-1550, April.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11711 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    13. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    14. Clare, Andrew & Seaton, James & Smith, Peter N. & Thomas, Stephen, 2014. "Trend following, risk parity and momentum in commodity futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2013. "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3878-3889.
    16. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    17. Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2020. "Anomalies across the globe: Once public, no longer existent?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 213-230.
    18. Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2004. "Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1039-1082, June.
    19. Laurens Swinkels, 2004. "Momentum investing: A survey," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(2), pages 120-143, August.
    20. S. G. M. Fifield & D. M. Power & D. G. S. Knipe, 2008. "The performance of moving average rules in emerging stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(19), pages 1515-1532.
    21. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
    22. Robert J Bianchi & Michael E Drew & John Hua Fan, 2015. "Microscopic momentum in commodity futures," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201510, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    23. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2019. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 61-79.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    25. Scott H. Irwin & Satoko Yoshimaru, 1999. "Managed futures, positive feedback trading, and futures price volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 759-776, October.
    26. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    27. Bryan Foltice & Thomas Langer, 2015. "Profitable momentum trading strategies for individual investors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(2), pages 85-113, May.
    28. Wang, Changyun & Yu, Min, 2004. "Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1337-1361, June.
    29. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
    30. Lubnau, Thorben & Todorova, Neda, 2015. "Trading on mean-reversion in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 312-319.
    31. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A reality check on technical trading rule profits in the U.S. futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 633-659, July.
    32. Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.
    33. Julien Chevallier & Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Understanding momentum in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1383-1402, October.
    34. Fong, Wai Mun & Wong, Wing Keung & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2005. "International momentum strategies: a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 89-109, February.
    35. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
    36. R. David Mclean & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2016. "Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 5-32, February.
    37. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 41-58.
    38. Rachev, Svetlozar & Jasic, Teo & Stoyanov, Stoyan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2007. "Momentum strategies based on reward-risk stock selection criteria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    39. Zaremba, Adam, 2016. "Strategies Based on Momentum and Term Structure in Financialized Commodity Markets," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 31-46, January.
    40. Terrence Hendershott & Charles M. Jones & Albert J. Menkveld, 2011. "Does Algorithmic Trading Improve Liquidity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 1-33, February.
    41. Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "Does the choice of performance measure influence the evaluation of commodity investments?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-150.
    42. Miffre, Joelle & Rallis, Georgios, 2007. "Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1863-1886, June.
    43. Taylor, Nick, 2014. "The rise and fall of technical trading rule success," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 286-302.
    44. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.
    45. de Groot, Wilma & Karstanje, Dennis & Zhou, Weili, 2014. "Exploiting commodity momentum along the futures curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 79-93.
    46. Ellis, Craig A. & Parbery, Simon A., 2005. "Is smarter better? A comparison of adaptive, and simple moving average trading strategies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-411, September.
    47. Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Joëlle Miffre & Adrian Fernandez‐Perez, 2015. "Commodity Strategies Based on Momentum, Term Structure, and Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 274-297, March.
    48. Stephen Taylor, 2000. "Stock index and price dynamics in the UK and the US: new evidence from a trading rule and statistical analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 39-69.
    49. Peter R. Locke & P. C. Venkatesh, 1997. "Futures market transaction costs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 229-245, April.
    50. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Huson Ali Ahmed & Seema Narayan, 2015. "Do Momentum‐Based Trading Strategies Work in the Commodity Futures Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(9), pages 868-891, September.
    51. Qian Shen & Andrew C. Szakmary & Subhash C. Sharma, 2007. "An examination of momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 227-256, March.
    52. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joëlle & Rallis, Georgios, 2010. "Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2530-2548, October.
    53. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    54. Zhang, Hanxiong & Auer, Benjamin R. & Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2018. "Performance ranking (dis)similarities in commodity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 115-137.
    55. repec:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:1557-1592. is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    57. Morana, Claudio, 2001. "A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-338, May.
    58. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    59. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    60. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Trading costs and the relative rates of price discovery in stock, futures, and option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 353-387, June.
    61. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H. & Cahan, Jared M., 2008. "Can commodity futures be profitably traded with quantitative market timing strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1810-1819, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    3. Yang, Yurun & Göncü, Ahmet & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2018. "Momentum and reversal strategies in Chinese commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 177-196.
    4. Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.
    5. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
    6. Stadtmüller, Immo & Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2022. "On the time-varying dynamics of stock and commodity momentum returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    7. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2015. "Combining momentum with reversal in commodity futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-444.
    8. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    9. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.
    10. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
    11. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    12. Meng Han, 2023. "Commodity momentum and reversal: Do they exist, and if so, why?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1204-1237, September.
    13. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2021. "The alpha momentum effect in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    15. Han, Yufeng & Hu, Ting & Yang, Jian, 2016. "Are there exploitable trends in commodity futures prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 214-234.
    16. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    17. Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Curve momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
    19. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Yasuhiro Iwanaga & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Commodity momentum decomposition," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 198-216, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend-following rules; Moving averages; Momentum; Trends; Commodity futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:35:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s11408-021-00385-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.