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Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence

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  • Zaremba, Adam
  • Bianchi, Robert J.
  • Mikutowski, Mateusz

Abstract

We perform the longest study of long-run reversal in commodity returns. Using a unique dataset of 52 agricultural, industrial, and energy commodities, we examine the price behavior for the years 1265 to 2017. The findings reveal a strong and robust long-run reversal effect. The returns of the past one to three years negatively predict subsequent performance in the cross-section of returns. The effect is robust to extensive subsample and subperiod analysis, and not driven by statistical biases, extreme events, or macroeconomic risks. Our findings support the explanation that the long-term reversal originates from supply and demand adjustments following price changes. Finally, the phenomenon is elevated in more volatile commodities and in periods of high return dispersion.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621001977
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106238
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run reversal; Commodity markets; Early commodity prices; Long-term historical returns; Mean reversion; Trading strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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