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Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices

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Author Info
Derek Headey
Shenggen Fan

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Abstract

Although the potential causes and consequences of recent rising international food prices have attracted widespread attention, many existing appraisals are superficial and/or piecemeal. This article attempts to provide a more comprehensive review of these issues based on the best and most recent research, as well as on fresh theoretical and empirical analysis. We first analyze the causes of the current crisis by considering how well standard explanations hold up against relevant economic theory and important stylized facts. Some explanations turn out to hold up much better than others, especially rising oil prices, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, biofuels demand, and some commodity-specific explanations. We then provide an appraisal of the likely macro- and microeconomic impacts of the crisis on developing countries. We observe a large gap between macro and micro factors, which, when identifying the most vulnerable countries, often point in different directions. We conclude with a brief discussion of what ought to be learned from this crisis. Copyright (c) 2008 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00345.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2008)
Issue (Month): s1 (November)
Pages: 375-391
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Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:39:y:2008:i:s1:p:375-391

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cudjoe, Godsway & Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission and poverty impacts in Ghana," IFPRI discussion papers 842, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Ng, Francis & Aksoy, M. Ataman, 2008. "Who are the net food importing countries ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4457, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ulimwengu, John M. & Workneh, Sindu & Paulos, Zelekawork, 2009. "Impact of soaring food price in Ethiopia: Does location matter?," IFPRI discussion papers 846, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  4. Ahmed, Akhter U. & Hill, Ruth Vargas & Smith, Lisa C. & Wiesmann, Doris M. & Frankenberger, Tim & Gulati, Kajal & Quabili, Wahidand & Yohannes, Yisehac, 2007. "The world's most deprived: Characteristics and causes of extreme poverty and hunger," 2020 vision discussion papers 43, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Phillip & Good, Darrel L., 2007. "The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 9951, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  6. Dessus, Sebastien & Herrera, Santiago & de Hoyos, Rafael, 2008. "The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost : some back-of-the-envelope calculations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4666, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. John Baffes & Bruce Gardner, 2003. "The transmission of world commodity prices to domestic markets under policy reforms in developing countries," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 159-180, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. von Braun, Joachim, 2008. "Rising food prices: What should be done?," Policy briefs 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  9. von Braun, Joachim & Ahmed, Akhter & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Fan, Shenggen & Gulati, Ashok & Hoddinott, John & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ruel, Marie & Torero, Maximo & van Rheenen, Te, 2008. "High food prices: The what, who, and how of proposed policy actions," Policy briefs 1A, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  10. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bezemer, Dirk & Headey, Derek, 2007. "Agriculture, Development and Urban Bias," MPRA Paper 7026, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Channing Arndt & Rui Benfica & Nelson Maximiano & Antonio M. D. Nucifora & James T. Thurlow, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 497-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Dawe, 2009. "The Unimportance of “Low” World Grain Stocks for Recent World Price Increases," Working Papers 09-01, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Villoria, Nelson, 2009. "China's Growth, World Food Prices, and Developing Countries Exports," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49398, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. Headey, Derek & Malaiyandi, Sangeetha & Fan, Shenggen, 2009. "Navigating the perfect storm: Reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," IFPRI discussion papers 889, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  4. Resnick, Danielle & Birner, Regina, 2008. "Agricultural strategy development in West Africa: The false promise of participation?," IFPRI discussion papers 844, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Headey, Derek & Fan, Shenggen, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: The causes and consequences of surging food prices," IFPRI discussion papers 831, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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