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Understanding momentum and reversal

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  • Kelly, Bryan T.
  • Moskowitz, Tobias J.
  • Pruitt, Seth

Abstract

Stock momentum, long-term reversal, and other past return characteristics that predict future returns also predict future realized betas, suggesting these characteristics capture time-varying risk compensation. We formalize this argument with a conditional factor pricing model. Using instrumented principal components analysis, we estimate latent factors with time-varying factor loadings that depend on observable firm characteristics. We show that factor loadings vary significantly over time, even at short horizons over which the momentum phenomenon operates (one year), and this variation captures reliable conditional risk premia missed by other factor models commonly used in the literature. Our estimates of conditional risk exposure can explain a sizable fraction of momentum and long-term reversal returns and can be used to generate even stronger return predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Bryan T. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pruitt, Seth, 2021. "Understanding momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 726-743.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:140:y:2021:i:3:p:726-743
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.06.024
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    2. Li, Yan & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Toan L.D. & He, Qiubei, 2022. "Price reversal and heterogeneous belief," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 104-119.
    3. Langlois, Hugues, 2023. "What matters in a characteristic?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 52-72.
    4. Bartram, Söhnke & Djuranovik, Leslie & Garratt, Anthony, 2021. "Currency Anomalies," CEPR Discussion Papers 15653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Fan, John Hua & Qiao, Xiao, 2023. "Commodity momentum: A tale of countries and sectors," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    6. Tobias Wiest, 2023. "Momentum: what do we know 30 years after Jegadeesh and Titman’s seminal paper?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(1), pages 95-114, March.
    7. Madhusmita Bhadra & Doyeon Kim, 2023. "Income elasticity of demand and stock market beta," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 225-240, August.
    8. Li, Yan & Huo, Jiale & Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Belief-based momentum indicator and stock market return predictability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Dong, Liang & Dai, Yiqing & Haque, Tariq & Kot, Hung Wan & Yamada, Takeshi, 2022. "Coskewness and reversal of momentum returns: The US and international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 241-264.
    10. Zhang, Shaojun, 2022. "Dissecting currency momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 154-173.
    11. Yan, Jingda & Yu, Jialin, 2023. "Cross-stock momentum and factor momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    12. Takano, Yuichi & Gotoh, Jun-ya, 2023. "Dynamic portfolio selection with linear control policies for coherent risk minimization," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 10(C).
    13. Chen, Hong-Yi & Hsieh, Chia-Hsun & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2023. "Revisiting the momentum effect in Taiwan: The role of persistency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Melin, Olena, 2023. "Identification-robust beta pricing, spanning, mimicking portfolios, and the benchmark neutrality of catastrophe bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    15. Xie, Jun & Fang, Yuying & Gao, Bin & Tan, Chunzhi, 2023. "Availability heuristic and expected returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Arbab Khalid Cheema & Wenjie Ding & Qingwei Wang, 2023. "The cross-section of January effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(6), pages 513-530, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Reversal; Factor model; Conditional betas; Conditional expected returns; IPCA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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