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A neoclassical interpretation of momentum

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  • Liu, Laura Xiaolei
  • Zhang, Lu

Abstract

The neoclassical theory of investment implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of investment), and earn higher expected stock returns than losers. The investment model succeeds in capturing average momentum profits, reversal of momentum in long horizons, long-run risks in momentum, and the interaction of momentum with several firm characteristics. However, the model fails to reproduce the procyclicality of momentum as well as its negative interaction with book-to-market equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Zhang, Lu, 2014. "A neoclassical interpretation of momentum," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 109-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:109-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.07.003
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    9. Andrei S. Gonçalves & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Does the Investment Model Explain Value and Momentum Simultaneously?," NBER Working Papers 23910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kelly, Bryan T. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pruitt, Seth, 2021. "Understanding momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 726-743.
    11. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    12. Mortal, Sandra C. & Schill, Michael J., 2018. "The role of firm investment in momentum and reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-278.
    13. Dittmar, Robert F. & Lundblad, Christian T., 2017. "Firm characteristics, consumption risk, and firm-level risk exposures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 326-343.
    14. Neal Galpin, 2020. "Cash holdings, costly financing and the q theory of returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1149-1174, April.
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    16. Qi Lin, 2020. "Idiosyncratic momentum and the cross‐section of stock returns: Further evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 579-627, June.
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    18. Byoung‐Kyu Min & Jangkoo Kang & Changjun Lee & Tai‐Yong Roh, 2020. "The q‐Factors and Macroeconomic Conditions: Asymmetric Effects of the Business Cycles on Long and Short Sides," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 897-921, December.
    19. Lorenzo Garlappi & Zhongzhi Song, 2017. "Can Investment Shocks Explain the Cross Section of Equity Returns?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3829-3848, November.
    20. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang & Li, Yuan, 2018. "The 52-week high, q-theory, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 148-163.
    21. Jun Li, 2019. "Explaining Momentum and Value Simultaneously," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4239-4260, September.
    22. Chen, Zhanhui & Yang, Bowen, 2019. "In search of preference shock risks: Evidence from longevity risks and momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 225-249.
    23. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Roh, Tai-Yong, 2020. "An investment-based explanation for the dispersion anomaly," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
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    25. Ang, Tze Chuan ‘Chewie’ & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2020. "Mispricing firm-level productivity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 139-163.

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