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What Factors Drive Global Stock Returns?

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  • Kewei Hou
  • G. Andrew Karolyi
  • Bong-Chan Kho
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    Abstract

    Using monthly returns for over 27,000 stocks from 49 countries over a three-decade period, we show that a multifactor model that includes factor-mimicking portfolios based on momentum and cash flow-to-price captures significant time-series variation in global stock returns, and has lower pricing errors and fewer model rejections than the global CAPM or a popular model that uses size and book-to-market factors. We find reliable evidence that the global cash flow-to-price factor is related to a covariance risk model. In contrast, we reject the covariance risk model in favor of a characteristic model for size and book-to-market factors. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 8 ()
    Pages: 2527-2574

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:24:y:2011:i:8:p:2527-2574

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    Cited by:
    1. Andre Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2013. "Measuring Credit Risk in a Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-063/IV/DSF56, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 May 2013.
    2. Du, Ding & Denning, Karen & Zhao, Xiaobing, 2012. "Real aggregate activity and stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 323-337.
    3. Turtle, H.J. & Zhang, Chengping, 2012. "Time-varying performance of international mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 334-348.
    4. Victoria Atanasov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "The Size Effect in Value and Momentum Factors: Implications for the Cross-section of International Stock Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-180/IV/DSF66, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Stavros Degiannakis & Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis & Christos Floros, 2013. "Return dispersion, stock market liquidity and aggregate economic activity," Working Papers 166, Bank of Greece.
    6. Lin, Xiaoji & Zhang, Lu, 2011. "Covariances versus Characteristics in General Equilibrium," Working Paper Series 2011-15, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    7. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Bostandzic, Denefa & Neumann, Sascha, 2014. "What factors drive systemic risk during international financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 78-96.
    8. Lin, Xiaoji & Zhang, Lu, 2013. "The investment manifesto," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 351-366.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    10. Breloer, Bernhard & Scholz, Hendrik & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Performance of international and global equity mutual funds: Do country momentum and sector momentum matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 58-77.
    11. Watanabe, Akiko & Xu, Yan & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2013. "The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 529-563.
    12. Walkshäusl, Christian, 2014. "The MAX effect: European evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-10.
    13. Waszczuk, Antonina, 2013. "A risk-based explanation of return patterns—Evidence from the Polish stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 186-210.
    14. Weigert, Florian, 2012. "In Search of Cushion? Crash Aversion and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns Worldwide," Working Papers on Finance 1325, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Mar 2013.
    15. Barber, Brad M. & De George, Emmanuel T. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2013. "The earnings announcement premium around the globe," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 118-138.

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