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The Equity Premium Implied by Production

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  • Urban J. Jermann

Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of the equity premium as implied by producers’ first-order conditions. A closed form expression is presented for the Sharpe ratio at steady-state as a function of investment volatility and adjustment cost curvature. Calibrated to the U.S. postwar economy, the model can generate a sizeable equity premium, with reasonable volatility for market returns and risk free rates. The market’s Sharpe ratio and the market price of risk are very volatile. Contrary to most models, the model generates a negative correlation between conditional means and standard deviations of aggregate excess returns.

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File URL: http://repec.org/sed2005/up.20222.1107181013.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2005 Meeting Papers with number 630.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed005:630

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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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  1. Cochrane, John H, 1991. " Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-37, March.
  2. João F. Gomes & Amir Yaron & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Asset Pricing Implications of Firms' Financing Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1321-1356.
  3. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  5. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, . "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  6. Julien Hugonnier & Erwan Morellec & Suresh Sundaresan, 2005. "Growth Options in General Equilibrium: Some Asset Pricing Implications," FAME Research Paper Series rp138, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  7. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," RCER Working Papers 420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  10. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
  11. Murray Carlson & Adlai Fisher & Ron Giammarino, 2004. "Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for the Cross-section of Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2577-2603, December.
  12. Joao F. Gomes, 2001. "Financing Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1263-1285, December.
  13. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  14. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Frederico Belo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2010. "Cross-sectional Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 16336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David N. DeJong & Emilio Espino, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of equity turnover," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 99-133, 03.
  3. Ronald J. Balvers & Dayong Huang, 2005. "Productivity-Based Asset Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 05-05 Classification- JEL, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  4. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Teo, Wing Leong, 2010. "Should the optimal portfolio be region-specific? A multi-region model with monetary policy and asset price co-movements," MPRA Paper 28216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. John Cochrane, 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 11193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Espino, Emilio, 2007. "Equilibrium portfolios in the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 673-687, November.
  7. Mele, Antonio, 2007. "Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 446-478, November.

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